Expected DA from July 2013 - AICPI (IW) for April 2013 released

Expected DA from July 2013 is 90% – Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of April 2013 released – 2 Point increase in CPI (IW)

Expected DA from July 2013 – Ministry of Labour and Employment has released AICPI (IW) – All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of April 2013. This index gains significance as far as central government employees and pensioners are concerned as determination of Dearness Allowance twice in a year is based on AICPI (IW).

All India Consumer Price Index for the period from July 2012 to June 2013 will be required to calculate expected DA from July 2013, for Central Government Employees and Pensioners

AICPI (IW) for the period from July 2013 to April 2013

Month	AICPI-IW
Jul 2012	212
Aug 2012	214
Sep 2012	215
Oct 2012	217
Nov 2012	218
Dec 2012	219
Jan 2013	221
Feb 2013	223
Mar 2013	224
Apr 2013	226
May 2013	To be released in the month June 2013
Jun 2013	To be released in the month July 2013

Two Scenarios on the progression of AICPI (IW)

	Scenario 1 (AICPI for May and June 2013 assumed to be same)	Scenario 2 (AICPI for May and June 2013 assumed to be 231 and 234)
Month	AICPI-IW	AICPI-IW
Jul 2012	212	212
Aug 2012	214	214
Sep 2012	215	215
Oct 2012	217	217
Nov 2012	218	218
Dec 2012	219	219
Jan 2013	221	221
Feb 2013	223	223
Mar 2013	224	224
Apr 2013	226	226
May 2013 (expected)	226	231
Jun 2013 (expected)	226	234
Expected DA	90%	91%

Scenario 1:

If we assume that AICPI (IW) for May and June 2013 will be same viz., 226 for the months of May 2013 and June 2013 the expected DA for the Central Government Employees and pensioners will be 90%, which is 10% more than the present 80%

Scenario 2:

In the case of more inflation and if we assume that AICPI (IW) for May 2013 and June 2013, will be 231 and 234 respectively then only Central Government employees and pensioners will be to get 1% more increase in DA than the 10% increase of DA we get in Scenario 1. The minimum assumed values for AICPI (IW) for May 2013 and June 2013 will be 231 and 234 respectively which would give DA increase of 11% more than the existing DA of 80%s viz., Dearness allowance for central government Employees and pensioners

Chances of Scenario 1 coming to reality is More

Chances of Scenario 1 coming to reality are more, since 4 point increase for the months of May 2013 and June 2013 may not possible which is considered for estimating DA in Scenario 2. So we can expect that Dearness Allowance from July 2013 will be 90%.

Click here to read more on Expected DA from July 2013

Please note that actual increase of DA from July 2013 will be known only after the formal announcement of the same by Government in the month of October 2013.

Use the following DA Calculator to test the above 2 Scenarios

Full text of PIB release for announcing AICPI (IW) for the month of April 2013 is as follows

Press Information BureauGovernment of India

Ministry of Labour & Employment

31-May-2013 18:07 IST

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) April 2013

According to a press release issued today by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & EmploymHowdy, adminent the All-India CPI-IW for April, 2013 rose by 2 point and pegged at 226 (two hundred and twenty six). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.89 per cent between March and April compared with 1.99 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward contribution to the change in current index came from Food group which increased by 2.08 per cent, contributing 2.07 percentage points to the total change. This was followed by Fuel & Light group with 0.91 percent increase contributing 0.12 percentage points to the change. At item level, largest upward pressure came from Rice, Wheat & Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Milk (Cow), Ginger, Root & Green Non-leafy vegetables, Tea Leaf, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Cigaratte, Electricity Charges, Medicine (Allopathic) etc. However, this was compensated by Mustard Oil and Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 10.24 per cent for April, 2013 as compared to 11.44 per cent for the previous month and 10.22 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 12.39 per cent against 13.21 per cent of the previous month and 10.66 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Mysore recorded the largest increase of 13 points followed by Giridih, Bengaluru and Puducherry (8 points each) and Darjeeling (7 points). Among others, 6 points rise was registered in 6 centres, 5 points in 2 centres, 4 points in 7 centres, 3 points in 15 centres, 2 points in 17 centres and and 1 point in 13 centres. On the contrary, a decline of 4 points was reported in Godavarikhani, 2 points in 4 centres and 1 point in one centre. Rest of the 7 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 40 centres are above All-India Index and other 35 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Chandigarh, Haldia and Ahmedabad centres remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of May, 2013 will be released on Friday, 28 June, 2013. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

Source: PIB news