DA from July 2014 estimated to be 107% – AICPIN for May 2014 released
DA from July 2014 estimated to be 107% – Dearness Allowance with effect from July 2014 can be fixed at 106% only if AICPIN decreases to the tune of 2 points or more which is unlikely
We have All India Consumer Price Index for the months of July 2013 to May 2014 declared officially by Labour Bureau. As GConnect predicted in the month of April 2014 (Scenario 1), the likely DA from July 2014 payable to all Central Government Employees and Pensioners is estimated to be 107%, viz., an increase of 7% from the present DA of 100%.
This estimation is based on the presumption that AICPI (IW) / AICPIN for the month of June 2014 is either unchanged (compared to CPI for the month of May 2014 which is 244) or there is one point decrease viz., AICPI (IW) at 243.
If AICPIN for June 2014 will be is unchanged:
Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+244)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76
= 107 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)
If AICPIN for June 2014 gets decreased by 1 point
Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+243)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76
= 107 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)
However, if all India consumer price index gets decreased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 2 points or more, then DA from July 2014 is estimated to be 106%. However, this scenario is unlikely, considering the present inflationary trend
If all India consumer price index gets decreased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 2 points or more
Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+242)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76
= 106 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)
On the higher side, DA from July 2014 is estimated at 108% only if AICPIN for the month of June 2014 increases to 257 or more which is also unlikely.
If all India Consumer Price Index gets increased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 13 points or more
Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+257)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76
= 108 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)
Month | Actual AICPI-IW |
---|---|
July 2013 | 235 |
Aug 2013 | 237 |
Sep 2013 | 238 |
Oct 2013 | 241 |
Nov 2013 | 243 |
Dec 2013 | 239 |
Jan 2014 | 237 |
Feb-2014 | 238 |
Mar-2014 | 239 |
Apr-2014 | 242 |
May 2014 | 244 |
Jun 2014 | Yet to be released |
Note : The above calculation of DA from July 2014, is only an estimation. Actual DA rate with effect from July 2014 will be announced by Government in the month of September or October 2014
Also read our earlier estimation of DA from July 2014 – DA from July 2014 will be either 106% or 107% – Estimation
Readers can easily verify the DA estimation made using the GConnect DA Calculator given below